Recession or no recession?

(image ) Dun chee sak.

Malaysia will go to a technical recession

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 13 — Citigroup Global Market forecast that Malaysia will go into a technical recession likely in fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009.

It also downgraded its gross domestic forecast (GDP) for 2009 to 0.5 per cent from 3.1 per cent.
The government official GDP forecast is 3.5 per cent.

In a media briefing on Malaysia’s Market Outlook for 2009 here today, it said that there could be a cut between 50-75 basis point in overnight policy rate in the first quarter of 2009.
According to Citigroup, GDP for 2010 is estimated at 4.2 per cent, while fiscal balance is forecast at minus five per cent in 2009 and minus 4.5 per cent in 2010.
GDP for quarter four 2008 is forecast at two per cent.

Despite the downgrade forecast by Citigroup, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop was earlier reported as saying that the government was confident that the country would not be experiencing a technical recession this year.

He said the country’s economic growth was expected to stay positive during the period from January to June this year based on the equity of the financial system which exceeds 13 per cent, total liquidity which is in billions of ringgit and the low non-performing loan (NPL) rate which is at about 2.5 per cent.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi "We are not having too much problem in the fourth quarter. Even the growth at two percent in the quarter, it would give us an average of more than five percent," he told reporters after opening the permanent secretariat of the World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) Foundation. ( Bernama)

Malaysia’s industrial output, which fell 7.7% in November last year from the same month in 2007, was worse than economists’ consensus estimates of a 6.4% fall. ( Star) - and will surely fall more in December 08, which means a high probability of a negative quarter.

Najib, Nor Yaakob and AAB has been championing the idea that Malaysia is insulated from the global recession/ depression since last year. Citing the strategy to sell products to China and India, they were not bothered to access the reality that both countries are also feeling a squeeze. Only at the end of the year, some conceded that there is very small, indirect effect but not the R-word. Recession is impossible! Especially during a by election. Hence, we are in the middle of January 2009 and the EPU has not submitted any data on the last quarter of 2008. Who wants to bet that the news won't be any good?

p.s. Singapore is transparent about its economic data when it showed its citizen that it was in recession and here are the plans. ( retraining, welfare, union enagement etc.). The Malaysia's ministry of labour till now has not come out with the framework on the retrenchment fund & guess the other ministers are still sleeping.

When Malaysian schoolchildren are forced to demonstrate

(image) 

Gaza madness has invaded our schools - www.malaysiakini.com

Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) today slammed Education Minister Hishammuddin Hussein for plans to use schoolchildren to protest against the on-going crisis in Gaza. In a statement issued today, the party’s secretary-general, S Arutchelvan, said the organisers of the protest could also be accused of ‘exploiting’ the children, just like Jaringan Rakyat Tertindas (Jerit) had been previously. Yesterday, English-daily New Straits Times reported that the education minister is planning a nation-wide protest against Israel’s actions in Gaza, involving about five million children and 360,765 teachers from more than 10,000 schools. Hishamuddin said the protest would prepare them for "global issues like peace, environment and the economic crisis". Arutchelvan, however, was not amused with the statement, arguing that the minister should get parental consent before involving children in such "dangerous" activities. "Do the children have consent from their parents as it seems that the minister has made the decision without even consulting the parents." (Source: Mkini)

JERIT got the brunt of the accusations by UMNO and Utusan for allegedly mis-using minors to demonstrate. Teenagers of 15-20 years old made their decision with their parent's consent yet they were caught by police and subjected to massive intimidation by the police force. The CPO of Selangor even claimed that the Sultan of Selangor is upset at the organisors. I wonder if the Sultan of Selangor is going to feel when 5 million schoolchildrens are forced to assemble or walk on the streets against their will and without their parent's approval.

• How can they be forced not to go to classroom on a schoolday when their primary task is to learn?
• And even if it is on a weekend, can the school authority force these children to participate?
  
• Are we teaching our children that demonstrations are ok, if government says so?

Here lies the hypocrisy of the current government. Children from primary and even until university are given the green light to engage in demonstration against Israel. Again, we are missing the forest for a tree. The decision makers are making a huge mistake by using a communist approach for a democratic right.

Boycott computers

Some Malaysians are like herds. When Dr Mahathir suggests that we boycott US products, the whole institution runs like dogs to come out with programmes and action plans. Soon, they will have groups of people checking the source of products or stationed outside KFC/ McD to pressure people to comply on the ban. Don't these group of people think?

My stand on the Israel attack is consistent with my stand on the attack on Iraq, that it is inhumane. Yes, I am a christian yet did not support the Iraq war of Bush ( which he tried to legitimize as a God demand) nor Israel war ( to me, they are more zionist in this aspect).

Yet, I dun see the same reaction of this group of people if sufferings are inflicted to the non Muslims. We send help to Indonesia ( Acheh) but not to Thailand or Sri Langka post asian tsunami. The same group of "this is not religion, not about Islam, but about human rights" kept quiet when Buddhist monks got whacked in Myammar, Arab descent Somalians terrorising local Africans or Christians got murdered in Indonesia / India.

So, keep up the boycott threats each and everytime something that does not favour them. They use the same concept like the Zionist behaviours, of course the zionists have guns & all. With their energy, they can ask for more donations and use the opportunity to do real relief works that will impact the Palestinians.

Why not Dr M boycott Blogspot ( american mah) where is famous Chedet resides and use local IC to power up his own laptop? Didn't he sanctioned TPM to do research on local IC project that spend millions of ringgit but without any return?

Boycotting US products a really dumb move for Malaysia

I pray that the attacks will cease and there is determination for peace.

Catholic publication in Malaysia partially banned.

My first posting for the new year would reflect on 2 issues.

Firstly, why am I never invited for sex parties like this (http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/1/2/nation/2931463&sec=nation)? I think I am with the wrong crowd.. hehe.

Interestingly, those who goes for these drug and alcohol parties would surely not be bothered with more 'important' stuff around. Their important stuff would differ from mine. Now it makes sense why was I never invited for such things.. kekek

Home Ministry bans Herald’s Malay supplement -Anil Netto

The bad news on New Year’s Day is that the approval comes with strings attached:

• the Herald has to stop its Malay-language supplement. A typical edition of the weekly paper has 32 pages, including an eight-page Malay-language pull-out, three pages in Chinese and two pages in Tamil, with the rest in English.
• the paper can only be sold in churches (I don’t think it’s being sold anywhere else at present)
• The Herald must print clearly on the cover that the paper is only meant for Christians.

I do know the East Malaysians and most of the natives don't read Chinese and sometimes English. After years of Malaysianization, some of the younger ones would not be able to read their native language as well. And some groups would not have written format of their language. Isn't it weird that the single language promoted to bring the different races together is used to divide?

It is even weirder that the BN government continue to complain that Bahasa Malaysia is not widely used , not dimartabatkan yet they see fit to ban the usage of the same language that they want to promote. The Buddhist and Hindus do not have a lot of native believers so this ruling will not have big impact on them .

But for 1 million plus native Christians, these are huge ruling that will adversely impact their faith and their fundamental rights.